The 2009 Oscar Predictions of a Chic-Flicker: The Frenzy starts 7pm EST on ABC!

This is the second part to my Oscar frenzy. I'm sure you are all excited and even though it's a little last minute I thought, what better way to keep my predictions going, than divulge my hopes and predictions for the Oscars? There have been some really interesting movies nominated and while I haven't had the pleasure of seeing every single one, I think some of my predictions have merit. Keep in mind The Academy Rules from my first Oscar post. I'll be borrowing the style of who will win versus who should win based on some of my Academy Award knowledge, experience and preference.

And finally to the predictions....

Best Supporting Actress
Who should win: I think this may be the most even grounded playing field. The movies aren't outrageously popular and neither are the performances. Each of these actors have mostly been overshadowed by other performances in the films. I think Amy Adams, nominated for Doubt, is fantastic, but I would of rather have seen her win for the incredibly unlikely Enchanted.

Who will win: There seems to be some in favour for Penelope Cruz for Vicky Christina Barcelona but she of course suffers from rule #6. Marisa Tomei from The Wrestler is also predicted, but is already a winner even though there is some controversy over her first award that seemed to be a result of rule #7. Also Taraji P. Henson for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Viola Davis for Doubt have been predicted but suffer from rule #2. I think it might be Cruz's year.

Best Actress

Who won't win: Melissa Leo for Frozen River for the same reasons as Jenkins and Langella in the Leading Man category. I'm sure she's a fabulous actress but I just don't see it happening. Also, Angelina Jolie because she is already a winner, the Brad Pitt reasons and the fact that the public was even shocked by her nomination for Changeling. She just might be our rule #7 but there are other possibilities out there as well.

Who should win: This is a strange scenario because before Kate Winslet won both the Supporting and Leading Actress Golden Globes people couldn't stop talking about Anne Hathway in Rachel Getting Married. I thought this was very exciting because someone unexpected might be the big award winner this year. But now I'm not so sure it'll be this one because of rule #2.

Who will win: Some people say Meryll Streep for Doubt and some say Winslet for The Reader. But I am still holding out hope for Hathaway. Honestly though, I know it will be Kate Winslet, because she is not a winner yet and has accumulated quite a few nominations over the years. She's really one of my favourites and has been deserving to win for quite a while. She is the example of rule #4. I'm almost positive it'll be her year because Meryll Streep is a phenomenon with over a dozen nominations and a few wins. They can't give it to her every year even if she is the greatest living actress.

Best Actor

Who won't win: I think Brad Pitt was pretty incredible in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. The poor guy gets so much flack for being pretty that people seem to ignore how good of an actor he is; because of that and rule #2, he will not win this award. I think he's also too popular in the world right now to win because there seems to be a separation between Hollywood and The Academy. Most unfortunately, this movie was not completely accepted by critics and audiences. I also don't think Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon or Richard Jenkins in The Visitor have a shot in hell because they are not well known enough and neither were their movies. It's sad because it doesn't mean they weren't fabulous, just that they have been overshadowed by other things than performance.

Who should win: Sean Penn for Milk. I haven't even seen it and I'm about 99.9% sure. He's has never been bad in anything and the guy just seems to be better than a lot of other people, a lot of the time; but because of rule #3, I'm not sure he will. The Academy is known for not liking him, since he tends not to show up even if he's nominated. He also doesn't promote his movies a lot and gets in trouble with the law. People also thought he had been jipped for years until he won in 2003.

Who will win: I honestly think it's between Penn and Mickey Rourke, who made a stunning comeback in The Wrestler. But because of rule #2, I'm not completely confident in his win either. His case is a little different because he is an older actor who has always been respected for great performances. He also won the Golden Globe, which doesn't exactly mean he's a shoe-in, but definitely gives a little perspective. I am also worried about rule #4 from reviews that solely focus on his performance and not so much on the movie itself. Ebert predicts Penn but wants Rourke to win. We'll just have to wait and see.

Best Supporting Actor

Who won't win: Most likely Philip Seymour Hoffman because he has won recently and people seem to be picking Meryll Streep for Doubt instead. Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road just fades into the background. Unfortunately Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder, even though he astounded me and everyone else. People were shocked by his nomination and though he deserves to win, he won't because it's a Ben Stiller comedy. If he does win, it might just be the greatest thing ever! This is a great category, in which I am very invested, with very worthy nominees.

Who should win: This is the one category where I believe my emotional and my logical choices are the same(check out Ebert). It has to be Heath Ledger and if it's not I'm gonna be really mad about it. He literally blew my mind in The Dark Night and I don't think it matters how good everyone else is, because he was so unique. The public and critics also made a big fuss over the lack of nominations for the movie, especially Best Picture, so they have to give them something. The critics believe his only competition is Josh Brolin for Milk who, as far as I'm concerned, can wait until next year.

Who will win: The unfortunate thing is that the reason Heath will mostly likely win is because he died. It is his second nomination and his last chance to win and if the Academy wants to please the public and look like nice people, they will give the award to his family. It's sad because it shouldn't be about that. He was incredible and that's why he should win. They would be risking a bad response if they chose this award to be their rule #7. But if they do, it should be Downey!

Best Picture

Who won't win: As films in general, none of Milk, The Reader or Frost/Nixon seem to be big favourites. These movies seem to be respected mostly for the performances and not so much for every other aspect of film. I believe any of these choices would be worthy candidates.

Who should win: As much as the predictions are pretty much unanimous, I was still blown away by The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. There was not one bad performance in the bunch and it had one of my favourite and the greatest actresses of all time, Cate Blanchett. I was disappointed that she wasn't nominated this year but she has quite a few nominations and a statue to her name. But in this case who will will is probably who should.

Who will win: Everyone seems to say Slumdog Millionaire and I agree. It's a really fantastic film and it's great that it was so small, with such a little budget and that it grew to be loved by so many people. It's also amazing that an foreign film is being recognized as one of the greats. But I will say my emotional choice is Benjamin who stole my heart.

For more information and some other predictions check out Ebert's discussion of a guy who does it all by numbers, Moviefone's predictions by photo gallery, The Guardian's Film Blog picks, Jay Stone's CanWest thoughts, and just about every other movie site or critic you can think of. Basically I want to say that, don't think it's bull when the nominees say "It's really an honour just to be nominated" because I'm sure most of them mean it. They know just as well as you and I that the award is not always given to the best actress or best director of the year because ultimately, the award is voted on by human beings. People with preference and bias and opinion that cloud the whole event. So I say they all win because they get to go, hear their name aloud next to the word's best and show a small clip of their movie to one of the biggest audiences of the year. I can't really blame the Academy because I think they are so many best films, actors, directors, etc. They gotta decide somehow.